The idea of “leapfrogging” has long been heralded as Africa’s great technological advantage. Skipping traditional developmental stages—such as landline telephony in favour of mobile networks or banking infrastructure in favour of fintech—has been positioned as a rapid pathway to modernisation. But while leapfrogging can deliver impressive short-term gains, does it create structural weaknesses that leave economies vulnerable in the long run? A critical examination, in the spirit of Edward Luce’s incisive economic analyses, suggests that Africa’s rapid technological adoption may be masking deeper infrastructural deficits that could undermine sustainable development.
The Appeal of Leapfrogging
The logic behind leapfrogging is seductive. Mobile banking has transformed financial inclusion, providing millions with access to digital payments without the need for brick-and-mortar banks. Renewable energy solutions, such as off-grid solar, have brought electricity to remote areas without waiting for expensive national grid expansion. E-commerce platforms and mobile-first businesses have thrived despite the absence of robust transport networks. In a continent where capital for large-scale infrastructure is scarce, the ability to sidestep traditional development pathways appears both efficient and pragmatic.
Yet, the notion that technological adoption alone can drive sustainable economic growth ignores critical structural gaps. Infrastructure—whether physical, institutional, or regulatory—remains the backbone of any modern economy. The absence of these foundations risks turning Africa’s digital revolution into a fragile, patchwork economy, one that is vulnerable to external shocks and long-term inefficiencies.
The Infrastructural Deficit and Its Consequences
Edward Luce, known for his critiques of short-term economic fixes, would likely argue that leapfrogging, while beneficial in the short term, fails to address fundamental developmental challenges. Consider mobile money, one of Africa’s most celebrated leapfrogging success stories. Platforms like M-Pesa have revolutionised transactions, but they exist in an ecosystem with weak financial infrastructure. Many mobile money users still lack access to formal credit, insurance, and wealth-building mechanisms. This keeps economic activity largely within low-value, short-term transactions rather than fostering long-term financial stability.
Similarly, Africa’s embrace of off-grid solar energy is often praised as a model for sustainable development. But while solar solutions provide electricity to millions, they do not replace the need for a reliable power grid that supports industrialisation and large-scale economic growth. Manufacturing, high-tech industries, and even large-scale agricultural processing require stable, high-capacity energy systems—something that small-scale, decentralised solar grids cannot deliver alone. Without substantial investment in national grids, Africa may remain reliant on fragmented, small-scale energy solutions that limit industrial competitiveness.
The Risk of Digital Precarity
Another hidden cost of leapfrogging is the vulnerability to external control. Much of Africa’s digital infrastructure—from mobile money platforms to cloud computing services—is dependent on foreign firms. Big tech companies, not African states, dominate cloud storage, digital payments, and data services. This lack of local ownership exposes African economies to the risks of regulatory changes, corporate decisions made outside the continent, and geopolitical tensions that could disrupt essential digital services.
Moreover, without local infrastructure investment, Africa risks becoming permanently dependent on foreign digital ecosystems rather than building indigenous technological capacity. The absence of local data centres, software development ecosystems, and robust regulatory frameworks means that African innovation remains subject to external forces rather than shaping its own trajectory.
Rethinking the Leapfrogging Narrative
Rather than seeing leapfrogging as a silver bullet, African policymakers must recognise it as a temporary fix, not a long-term strategy. Infrastructure investment—roads, power grids, institutions, and locally developed digital ecosystems—remains indispensable for true economic resilience. Countries that have successfully industrialised, from China to South Korea, have done so through a combination of technological adoption and foundational infrastructure development. Africa must follow suit.
In the end, technological progress without strong economic foundations risks creating a mirage of development—one that dazzles in the short term but crumbles when subjected to deeper structural pressures. Leapfrogging should be a stepping stone, not a substitute, for long-term investment in the infrastructure that drives real, lasting economic transformation.
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